盖庆恩 讲席副教授



报告题目:Selective Migration and Agriculture Wage Gap: Evidence from China

教授观点:We document in this paper that productivities in the agriculture sector are signi?cantly below those of the non-agricultural sector in China, even after we control for individual fixed effect and selective migration. Our result suggests that there exist significant barriers to migration in China. To estimate the barriers, we develop a dynamic life cycle model of migration decisions, where individuals have different agricultural and non-agricultural abilities and face migration costs during out-migration and return migration. Using the National Fixed Point Survey, a panel dataset that tracks 20,000 households during 2003-2013 in rural China, we structurally estimate the model to quantify the barriers. We control for selection in unobserved abilities by modeling individuals’ sector choice based on their comparative advantage. In addition, we make use of the county-by-county roll-out of the New Rural Pension Scheme as an instrument that only affects the migration costs but not wages to identify the relative contribution of migration barriers to the agricultural productivity gap.

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